How Debt Prevents Affordable Housing
2009年3月22日15時46分Why are homes selling so slowly today? Because homes are still priced well above what people can afford to repay.
A person buys a computer solely on its ability to satisfy his wants. He does not believe there is any computer pyramid scheme that will make him rich by selling the computer to someone else.
The computer has the same ability to play music when the price declines. So eventually someone decides he would rather play music on the computer than eat N cheeseburgers. The computer sells.
Housing was priced far above its ability to satisfy wants. People priced housing according to its ability to make money selling it to the next guy. Schiff recently claimed at the Austrian Scholars Conference that the average home buyer in CA expected home prices to appreciate by 20% per year for the next 10 years.
When the price is appreciating by 20% each year, the buyer is not constrained to what he can afford to repay. As a result, he can pay much more. The housing supply appreciates to what he can pay.
Now that the pyramid scheme is over, people will price homes at its non-monetary value — its ability to keep your family warm, hold a BBQ, watch a football game.
The problem is that all these homes were already sold at ponzi-prices using debt. The ponzi prices are gone, but the debt remains.
The home cannot sell until defaulting on or repaying the debt. The man who sees value in keeping his family warm cannot afford to repay the debt. The institution who owns the home does not want to sell it to him at a price he can afford.
The price a man can afford to repay will cause the lending institution to lose money and possibly default. The institution will avoid and delay this loss the more a bailout is expected in the future.
So the price does not fall and home does not sell.
People modify the amount of calories they consume 
